Texas Commercial Real Estate Right Now: What’s Moving, What’s Stalling, and What It Means for Your Business

TXCRE Broker delivers a concierge-style commercial real estate experience that goes far beyond signing a lease. Instead of leaving clients to manage vendors, utilities, and move-in logistics alone, TXCRE handles the entire process from lease to lights-on.

Here's something most national CRE reports won't tell you: the Texas commercial real estate market isn't one market. It's four. And right now, each of those four metros -- DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio -- is telling a completely different story.

If you're searching for office space, the conditions in Austin are practically the opposite of what you'd find in DFW. If you're looking for industrial space, Houston is operating in a different universe than San Antonio. If you own retail property, where your building sits changes everything about how quickly it leases, what you'll get for it, and who's interested.

This breakdown is written for business owners and property owners who are making real decisions -- not for people who want a vague overview of market sentiment. You'll get submarket-level specifics, honest assessments of where opportunities actually exist right now, and practical guidance on what these conditions mean before you sign anything or list anything.

Why Texas Keeps Growing While Other Markets Cool

It's worth taking a second to understand why Texas CRE behaves differently than most other states, because it shapes every submarket trend you're about to read.

Texas added more people than any other state for the third consecutive year, with the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metros each absorbing hundreds of thousands of new residents. Austin continues to grow despite its tech sector recalibration. San Antonio is expanding steadily and quietly. This isn't speculative growth driven by low interest rates -- it's structural. People and companies are genuinely relocating here, and they need space to operate.

That population and business migration create a floor underneath Texas commercial real estate that most markets don't have. Retail needs customers, customers come from residents, and Texas keeps adding both. Industrial needs supply chains and labor pools, and Texas has them. Office demand follows corporate relocations, and those relocations haven't stopped.

Now here's where it gets nuanced: population growth doesn't mean every property type in every submarket is thriving. The market has bifurcated sharply. The best corridors and the best product are being absorbed quickly. Secondary locations and dated assets are struggling. The gap between the two has widened more in the past 18 months than at any point in the past decade.

That gap is where the real decisions live. So let's break down each market.

DFW: The Most Competitive Market in Texas -- and One of the Most Active in the Country

If you want to understand what a genuinely healthy commercial real estate market looks like, start with Dallas-Fort Worth. Over 8 million people. Over 100,000 net new residents annually. A business-friendly regulatory environment that's attracted corporate relocations from California, Illinois, New York, and virtually every other high-cost state. And a commercial real estate market that's been absorbing space at a pace that has kept developers and landlords busy for years.

But not every corner of DFW is equal. Here's what's actually happening inside the market.

DFW Retail: Tight, Competitive, and Getting More Selective

DFW retail vacancy sits at approximately 4.8 percent -- one of the tightest rates nationally for a market of this size. That number doesn't mean every retail space is in demand, but it does mean that well-located, right-sized spaces in strong corridors are moving fast.

The corridors generating the most leasing activity right now:

  • Legacy/Frisco/The Colony: This is arguably the hottest retail corridor in North Texas. Household incomes are among the highest in the state, daytime population is dense, and the resident base skews toward the exact demographics that service, fitness, medical retail, and food and beverage concepts want. Second-generation restaurant spaces here -- ones where a previous tenant already built out a commercial kitchen -- are leasing within weeks, sometimes with multiple offers.
  • Uptown Dallas and Knox-Henderson: These walkable urban neighborhoods have established themselves as the benchmark for experience-driven retail in DFW. Foot traffic is consistent, the consumer spending profile is premium, and local brands that can command a story alongside their product are performing extremely well. National chains without a strong local identity narrative are a harder sell here.
  • Fort Worth Near Southside and the Cultural District: Fort Worth's urban core has been on a genuine upswing. The Near Southside in particular has become a destination for independent restaurant operators, boutique fitness, specialty health and wellness, and creative professional services. Base rents are still more accessible than Dallas proper, which is attracting operators who want a strong urban trade area without the sticker shock.

What's leasing quickly across DFW: second-gen restaurant space, medical retail, fitness and wellness studios, veterinary and pet services, and neighborhood-serving concepts in dense suburban nodes with strong anchor tenants.

What's sitting: large-format retail above 10,000 square feet in secondary corridors, Class C strip centers without recent renovation, and free-standing retail in locations where the surrounding population density hasn't caught up to the original development thesis.

DFW Office: A Market That's Punishing Average and Rewarding Excellence

The headline office vacancy number in DFW -- approximately 19 percent -- sounds alarming. It's not the full story.

What's actually happening is a bifurcation that's become more dramatic with every passing quarter. Class A office space in Uptown Dallas, Legacy/Frisco, the Dallas Arts District, and the Plano/Allen/McKinney corridor is absorbing steadily. Companies that are bringing employees back to the office want environments that make people want to come back -- modern amenities, walkable surroundings, good parking, and genuine quality. Those buildings are full.

Class B and Class C office in suburban parks built 20+ years ago, with dated common areas, aging HVAC systems, and limited walkable amenities? That's where the vacancy concentration lives. And those buildings aren't recovering without significant capital investment.

For tenants, this market is creating a real opportunity. Landlords of Class A buildings are competing for quality tenants by offering:

  • Tenant improvement allowances (TI) that are substantially higher than anything available 3 years ago -- in some cases $60-$100+ per square foot in premium buildings
  • Free rent periods of 3-6 months or more on longer-term leases
  • Below-market base rents in buildings that want to improve their occupancy story before the next lease cycle
  • Shorter initial terms with more generous renewal options, giving tenants flexibility they couldn't negotiate in the 2021-2022 environment

If your business needs office space in DFW and you've been hesitating, the window to capture these conditions is real. The best assets won't stay this generous as absorption continues.

For office building owners: the market is telling you something clearly. Tenants are making choices based on quality, amenities, and location specificity. A generic listing with no positioning strategy isn't going to move.

Owners who are investing in renovation, improving common areas, and working with brokers who are actively reaching out to tenant reps -- not just waiting for inbound inquiries -- are the ones filling space.

Houston: Industrial Dominance and the Suburban Retail Story Nobody's Talking About Enough

Houston's commercial real estate market is driven by two forces: an industrial sector that's structurally stronger than almost any other U.S. metro, and a suburban retail opportunity that most tenants outside the market haven't figured out yet.

Houston Industrial: Why This Market Keeps Outperforming

The Port of Houston is the largest U.S. seaport by foreign tonnage. That's not a marketing line -- it's a structural economic fact that shapes how industrial real estate in this market performs. Supply chains route through Houston. Distribution centers locate near Houston. Manufacturing facilities want access to Houston's port, workforce, and rail infrastructure.

Industrial vacancy in Houston sits at approximately 6.1 percent with healthy absorption continuing. The submarkets generating the most deal activity:

  • Northwest Houston / Highway 290 Corridor: This is where a significant portion of logistics and distribution demand is concentrating. Good access to major highways, deep labor pools, and a mix of existing product and new development make this one of the most active industrial submarkets in the metro.
  • Southeast Houston / Bayport Industrial District: Proximity to the Port of Houston and major petrochemical facilities makes this submarket essential for import/export operators, third-party logistics companies, and industrial users with port-dependent supply chains.
  • Sugar Land and Southwest Houston: Growing industrial activity here is tied to the region's expanding population and the need for last-mile distribution infrastructure to serve the southwest Houston and Fort Bend County residential base.

What's leasing well: warehouse and distribution facilities with dock-high loading (multiple doors preferred), clear heights of 24 feet or above, adequate electrical capacity (at least 480V/3-phase for most modern industrial users), and yard space for trailer storage or outdoor operations.

What tenants consistently get wrong in Houston industrial: focusing on square footage without confirming power capacity and clear height first. A 15,000 square foot building with 16-foot clear heights and single-phase power is fundamentally incompatible with most distribution and manufacturing operations. Know your specs before you start touring, or you'll waste weeks on spaces that can't actually work for your business.

Houston Suburban Retail: The Window That's Still Open

While DFW's suburban retail corridors are getting competitive, Houston's suburban ring is posting vacancy numbers below 5 percent in several key nodes with far less tenant competition. Here's why this matters:

Markets like Katy, Sugar Land, Pearland, The Woodlands, and League City are experiencing population-driven retail demand that genuinely outpaces new supply. These aren't markets where development has overbuilt -- they're markets where the residential growth has been so consistent that retail inventory is being absorbed as fast as it's delivered.

For tenants considering Houston: if you're flexible on location and your business model works in a suburban trade area with strong household incomes and consistent foot traffic, the suburban Houston ring gives you more viable options at better rates than equivalent positions in DFW's tightest corridors. The competitive dynamic simply hasn't caught up yet.

For property owners in these submarkets, well-located, well-maintained retail in these nodes has real pricing power right now. Occupancy is strong, tenant demand is genuine, and buyers looking at income-producing retail assets are actively evaluating Houston suburban product.

Austin: The Negotiating Window Every Tenant Should Know About

Austin's commercial market has been through a lot in the past three years, and the current conditions create one of the most interesting tenant opportunities in Texas right now -- but you have to understand what's actually happening to take advantage of it.

Austin Office: High Vacancy, High Opportunity for Prepared Tenants

Office vacancy in Austin sits at approximately 22 percent -- the highest of the four major Texas markets. This is a direct result of the post-pandemic tech sector contraction. Companies that signed large office leases in 2020 and 2021 while riding the remote work boom subsequently downsized, consolidated, or departed. The wave of sublease availability that followed pushed vacancy to levels Austin hadn't seen in years.

Here's what the vacancy number means in practical terms:

Landlord motivation is at its highest in a decade. Buildings that were commanding $45-$55 per square foot in 2022 are having real conversations at $35-$42 with aggressive concession packages. TI allowances that were $50-$65/sf two years ago are now $70-$100/sf in competitive situations. Free rent periods of 4-8 months are being offered on 3-5 year leases. And term flexibility that simply wasn't available during the post-pandemic boom is now on the table.

The catch: landlords are motivated, not desperate. They're still evaluating tenants carefully. Companies with clean financials, a clear space plan, and a broker who knows which buildings are actively dealing -- versus which ones are holding firm on pricing -- are the ones capturing the best packages.

The submarkets holding up best:

  • The Domain and Northwest Austin: The Domain has matured into a genuine live-work-play environment that continues to attract quality corporate tenants. Class A product here is absorbing at better rates than the broader market.
  • East Austin: The smaller office market along the East Side is holding up because the product is differentiated -- creative, adaptive reuse, neighborhood character -- and tenants who want that aren't finding it elsewhere.
  • South Congress and South Lamar: Mixed-use environments with strong street-level retail and walkable amenities are holding occupancy better than suburban office parks.

Austin Retail: Resilient Where It Matters

Don't let Austin's office narrative bleed into your assessment of retail. The two are telling very different stories.

South Congress, East Cesar Chavez, the Domain's retail corridors, and the Barton Creek/Southwest Austin nodes are performing well. Austin has a consumer culture -- particularly in its core neighborhoods -- that continues to support independent retail, experience-driven food and beverage, and local brands with strong community identity.

Where Austin retail gets hard: suburban nodes where development has outpaced population density, and generic strip retail that lacks differentiation or anchor draw. Those spaces are sitting longer and requiring more landlord flexibility to fill.

San Antonio: The Market Everyone Underestimates and the Opportunity It Creates

San Antonio doesn't generate the CRE headlines that DFW and Austin do. And that's precisely what makes it one of the best-positioned markets in Texas for tenants who are paying attention.

San Antonio by the Numbers

Retail vacancy: approximately 5.2 percent. Industrial demand: accelerating. Population growth: consistent and sustained, driven by a uniquely diversified economic base -- military, healthcare, hospitality, manufacturing, and now a growing technology and cybersecurity sector tied to Fort Sam Houston and Lackland Air Force Base.

San Antonio doesn't have Austin's volatility or DFW's intensity. What it has is steady, predictable demand across multiple property types, submarkets that are absorbing without the competitive pressure you'd face in North Texas, and base rents that remain meaningfully below comparable positions in the other major Texas markets.

Where San Antonio Retail Is Moving

  • Highway 281 North / Stone Oak: This is San Antonio's highest-income retail corridor. Household incomes here rival the strongest DFW suburban nodes, and the tenant mix of medical retail, premium service, fitness, and food and beverage reflects that demographic. This corridor's vacancy is tight and getting tighter.
  • Alamo Ranch (Northwest San Antonio): One of the fastest-growing residential communities in the metro has created sustained retail demand that's still being met. National and regional tenants who've been watching this corridor for years are now committing.
  • South Side near Toyota Manufacturing Campus: Toyota's ongoing presence on the South Side has created a commercial ecosystem around it. Retail and flex industrial space serving the manufacturing corridor and its workforce is in steady demand.

San Antonio Industrial: The Border Advantage

San Antonio sits 150 miles from Laredo, the largest land port of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border. That geography matters enormously for companies with cross-border supply chains, and it's driving consistent industrial demand that many national tenants overlook when they're focused on DFW and Houston.

Industrial vacancy in San Antonio is in the range of 7-8 percent with absorption trending in the right direction. What makes San Antonio compelling for industrial tenants isn't just the availability of space -- it's the pricing. You can secure functional warehouse and distribution space here at rates 15-25 percent below comparable Houston or DFW product. For businesses where occupancy cost is a major factor in margin, that differential compounds over a 5-year lease term into a genuinely significant number.

What This Means If You're a Tenant Looking for Space Right Now

Every market is offering something different right now, and the tenants winning the best deals are the ones who walk in understanding the environment before they start touring.

Here's the practical translation by market:

  • DFW Retail: Move with urgency in the strong corridors. Frisco, Legacy, Uptown, and Knox-Henderson don't have deep availability, and the right second-gen spaces move fast. If you've been thinking about a DFW retail location, being slow is a real cost.
  • DFW Office: Take full advantage of current conditions. The TI packages, free rent, and pricing flexibility available right now are historically generous for Class A product. Work with a broker who knows which buildings are actively dealing and which landlords are just fishing.
  • Houston Industrial: Define your specs before you start. Square footage is just the beginning -- clear height, power capacity, dock configuration, and yard space all matter more than the address. Touring spaces that don't fit your operational requirements wastes weeks you don't have.
  • Houston Suburban Retail: If your business model works in a suburban trade area, the combination of sub-5% vacancy, strong demographics, and less tenant competition than DFW makes this one of the better opportunities in Texas right now.
  • Austin Office: You're in a buyer's market for office space, but you need representation to navigate it properly. The gap between the deals landlords are publicly advertising and the deals a prepared tenant with a good broker can actually get is significant right now.
  • San Antonio: Act before the market pricing catches up to the demand fundamentals. The window where you can secure well-located space at below-market rates relative to comparable Texas markets is real -- and it won't stay open indefinitely as the metro continues to grow.

What This Means If You're a Property Owner

The single biggest mistake owners are making in the current Texas market is treating a strong market as a reason not to work the asset.

Here's the reality: there's a strong market for the right product in the right location. There's a stagnant market for everything else. And the gap between those two groups has widened dramatically.

If you're in the 'strong' category -- well-located, quality product, correctly priced -- a few things will determine whether you capture the demand that exists:

  • Pricing discipline. The single biggest reason well-located properties sit longer than they should is overpricing. In a market where tenants have representation and access to comparable data, an asking rate 10-15% above current market conditions doesn't get negotiated down -- it gets skipped entirely.
  • Speed of response. Tenant reps evaluate multiple options simultaneously. The landlord whose broker answers first, schedules tours quickly, and responds to LOIs without delay wins deals that equally-positioned properties lose simply through friction.
  • Presentation quality. Accurate availability, clear deal terms, and a well-prepared information package signal that ownership is serious and organized. Confusion, outdated information, or inconsistent availability messaging sends the opposite message.
  • Proactive outreach. Posting to listing platforms is the minimum. Properties that lease quickly in a competitive environment are worked -- meaning the listing broker is making direct calls to tenant rep firms, proactively sharing information with operators in relevant sectors, and creating visibility beyond passive listing exposure.

If you're in the 'struggling' category -- dated product, secondary location, or simply not differentiated from what's available at a lower price -- the market is giving you clear feedback. The options are reposition (invest in the asset), reprice (accept where market demand actually is), or wait out a market that isn't going to drift in your direction on its own.

5 Questions to Ask Before You Sign Anything in Texas CRE

Whether you're a tenant about to tour space or an owner about to list, these questions will tell you immediately whether you're working with someone who actually knows the Texas market:

  • What's the current vacancy rate in my specific target submarket -- not the metro average -- and is it trending up or down? The metro number is nearly meaningless for decision-making. The submarket number is everything.
  • What concessions are landlords in this building class and submarket actively offering right now? Not asking rate -- actual executed deal terms. Free rent, TI, escalation caps, renewal options.
  • What's leased in this corridor in the past 90 days, at what rate, and to what type of tenant? Comparable transactions are the only objective measure of where market value actually sits.
  • What are the infrastructure specifics of this property that affect my operations -- power, HVAC, loading, ceiling heights, zoning, parking ratio? Generic space tours that skip this conversation produce expensive surprises after you've signed.
  • What does the supply pipeline look like for my property type in this market over the next 24 months? New deliveries can shift the negotiating environment significantly. Knowing what's coming helps you structure lease terms accordingly.

Get a Free Market Read from TXCRE

TXCRE operates across all four Texas markets -- DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio -- every week. We're in these submarkets, on these deals, and in these conversations. The intelligence we share here comes from that active presence, not from third-party reports.

If you're a tenant trying to figure out where to search, what you should be paying, and which landlords are actually dealing, we'll give you that read before you tour a single space. If you're a property owner trying to understand where your asset sits in the current market and what it'll take to lease or sell it, we'll give you a straight answer.

No pitch. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what the market looks like right now.

Call 972-372-4217 or visit txcrebroker.com/contact-us to schedule your complimentary market consultation.

FAQs

Q: What's the current commercial real estate vacancy rate in DFW?

A: DFW retail vacancy is approximately 4.8 percent, among the tightest nationally for a market its size. Office vacancy is approximately 19 percent metro-wide, but Class A product in Uptown, Legacy, and Frisco is absorbing well. The metro average obscures a sharp bifurcation between high-quality assets and everything else.

Q: Is Houston industrial real estate still a good market for tenants?

A: It's a strong market with real demand, which means tenants shouldn't expect to find abundant availability at soft pricing. Industrial vacancy sits around 6.1 percent with consistent absorption. Well-configured product with dock-high loading, adequate power, and modern clear heights is leasing at a premium. Come in with defined specs and a broker who knows the submarkets or you'll spend weeks on properties that don't actually fit.

Q: Is Austin office space a good deal for tenants right now?

A: It's one of the best office tenant markets in Texas right now. Vacancy near 22 percent means landlords are motivated. TI packages, free rent, below-market base rents, and flexible terms are all negotiable in ways they weren't 2-3 years ago. But you need representation to know which buildings are genuinely open to dealing and which ones are just testing the market.

Q: Why should I consider San Antonio for commercial space when DFW gets all the attention?

A: Because less competition and lower pricing with solid demand fundamentals is the definition of an opportunity. San Antonio's retail vacancy is around 5.2 percent, its industrial market is absorbing, and base rents are 15-25 percent below comparable DFW and Houston positions. The metro's population growth is consistent, its economic base is diversified, and the pricing hasn't yet caught up to where fundamentals suggest it should be. That gap is what makes it worth serious consideration.

Q: What property types are performing best across Texas commercial real estate right now?

A: Industrial is the strongest performer statewide, particularly in Houston and DFW. Retail in well-located, high-income suburban corridors is absorbing well. Medical office is in consistently high demand across all four markets, with limited quality supply. Class A office in the right submarkets is moving. Class B/C office in generic suburban parks is the biggest challenge across all four metros.

Q: Does TXCRE work with both tenants and property owners?

A: Yes. TXCRE provides tenant representation and landlord leasing/sales services across DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. We work across all six major property types: retail, office, industrial, medical, flex, and multifamily. Our market intelligence comes from being active on both sides of transactions, which means we understand the market from the perspective of everyone at the table.

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